| | Risk markets saw choppy trade yesterday. European markets opened on a weak note and rallied before giving back much of the gains to close relatively unchanged on the day. Most asset classes saw this type of trade on the day. Today sees more important economic data, and the result of trade today may shape the markets trend for the next week. | |
| | | | | | Market Analysis 17th May: | | | | | | | Euro-Bund Futures (FGBL) Open:143.45 Low:142.83 High:143.69 Close:143.37 | | | | | | | | | | | | The Bund was relatively flat on the day, recovering from a move to below Tuesday’s lows having held the 143.69 highs from Monday soon after the open. The bigger picture reversal point for Bunds is around the 141.77 level and a close below here would be necessary if the bears are to find their way into the market. Otherwise, the recovery from below Tuesday’s lows should signal another move higher.. | | | Support 142.26 **
141.77 **
141.26 **
140.04 ***
140.59 ** | | | | Resistance 147.51 **
145.81 **
144.88 **
1.400% ***
143.69 ** | | |  | | | | | | | |
| | | | FTSE 100 Index Futures Open:5491.0 Low:5338.0 High:5434.0 Close:5364.5.0 | | | | | | | | | | | | The FTSE was relatively flat on the day rallying 1 big figure from the day’s lows before steadily giving back the gains going into the close, this should signal further downside pressure for the market, especially if the weakness seen in commodities continues going forward. Alternatively, a recovery through the 5666.5 highs made on Friday would be a strong reversal pattern and thus if this is achieved strong upside activity should follow. | | | Support 5354-64 **
5338 **
5281.5 ***
5193.5 ***
4839.5 *** | | | | Resistance 5944 ***
5894.5 **
5849-60 **
5768-86.5 **
5655-73.5 ** | | |  | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | EURO STOXX 50 Index Futures (FESX)Open:2130 Low:2118 High:2178 Close:2139 | | | | | | | | | | | | The EuroStoxx was relatively flat on the day recovering form new lows on the month before giving back a big chunk of the gains. The market would need to see a move to below 2118 to signal the resumption of a broad trend lower. If the market can stage a recovery through 2254-59, it may show that the market has put in place a capitulation low and thus target deep upside levels. | | | Support 2137 **
2109-18 **
2064 ***
2045 ***
2000 ** | | | | Resistance 2500-02 **
2445 ***
2376-82 **
2300-08 **
2249-59 ** | | |  | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | DAX Futures (FDAX) Open:6327.0 Low:6298.5 High:6445.0 Close:6360.0 | | | | | | | | | | | | The Dax closed small down on the day, making a new low for the month before recovering to the 6400.0 handle. Technically the outlook remains similar to previous day’s, a recovery back above the 6606.5-54.0 area would be needed to signal the start of a strong rally targeting a break of the 6900.0 handle. Otherwise the market still needs to take out the 6300.0 handle if it is to force a capitulation of stubborn longs from the market. Given the choppy nature of trade, at some point a sharp breakdown may result in an extended drive. | | | Support 6353-70 **
6298 ***
6267.5 **
6175 **
5992.5 ** | | | | Resistance 7196.5 ***
7167 **
7103.5 ***
6958 ***
6854.5-85 *** | | |  | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | Economic Calender
| | | | | | | | | | | | Time (GMT) | Country | Data | Month | Expected | Previous | | 13.30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | W/W | 365K | 367K | | 13.30 | US | Continuing Claims | W/W | 3230K | 3229K | | 15.00 | US | Philadelphia Fed | MAY | 10.0 | 8.5 | | 15.00 | US | Leading indicator | APR | 0.1% | 0.3% | | 17.35 | US | Fed's Bullard Speaks | -- | -- | -- | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Lesson From the Pros: US Philadelphia Fed
| | | | | | | | | | | A monthly survey of manufacturing activity in the Federal Reserve District of Philadelphia. Each month the Philadelphia Fed distributes questionnaires to senior executives of 250 corporations. Participants indicate the direction of change (up, down or unchanged) in overall business activity and in various sub indices, the most closely tracked of which are employment, new/unfilled orders and prices paid. The headline number is compiled as a diffusion index which reports the percentage of positive scores minus the percentage of negatives. Therefore, a reading above zero signifies expansion in the manufacturing sector and below zero contraction. The survey has been conducted monthly since May 1968 lending it credibility in the market’s eyes. It is also seen as a timely precursor to the all important ISM Manufacturing figure that is released at the beginning of each subsequent month. | | | | |
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