Thoughts from the Trading Floor 7th February 2013

There is very little expectations of anything major being announced today by the ECB.

This year has seen the ECB balance sheet shrink to levels last seen in November 2011. This is mainly down to the repayment of LTRO loans by banks and this combined with rhetoric from the ECB suggesting that further rate cuts are at least on hold for the time being and some desire for the ECB to start exiting from some of their crisis measures means that excess liquidity from the Eurozone banking system has been drained somewhat.

This has led to higher shorter term interest rates and has helped the Euro currency move strongly higher since the start of the year. The move higher in the Euro has dominated talk over the last week with some European politicians concerned about the high levels potentially leading to a stalling of the small economic recovery seen recently. However sources comments suggest that the Euro rate does not concern the ECB yet. Draghi, unlike his predecessor Trichet, has shown himself to be more of an activist and can surprise. If there is any concern within the ECB about the high levels of the Euro the ECB may look to play down recent hawkishness or appear to be more downbeat about the economy. It is unlikely that Draghi will make any direct comments about the Euro but he may be asked about it during the Q&A.