The Bank of England’s latest Inflation Report paints a pretty gloomy picture. Growth is now expected to be rather weaker than in February, yet sticky inflation means that the MPC sees little scope for further quantitative easing. Admittedly, the central projection for inflation is a bit below the target as it was in February. But given the large risks around the forecast, the MPC still judges that “the risks of inflation being above or below the 2% target are broadly balanced.” On the face of it, then, the Report does not suggest that a resumption of QE is imminent. However, even after today’s downgrades, the MPC’s forecasts still look too optimistic – note that the Committee still isn’t incorporating the more extreme risks associated with the euro-zone. And there are plenty of reasons (not least the extremely weak pay growth shown in this morning’s labour market figures) for core inflation to fall further. Accordingly, we still expect QE to be restarted later this year.
Iran – US - Israel Festering Problem: 33 years after the Iranian Revolution in 1979, not much has changed. Iran is and has always been a thorn in the side of the USA and much of Western Europe. (review by propertyinvest)
Barclays is trying to bolster its position in Spain's high street banking market by eyeing a number of the country's cajas. The Sunday Telegraph Reports
The Deposit Guarantee Fund was set up to protect personal deposits up to €100,000 in the event of a bank failure, not to bail out the banking sector. All European countries have one, as required by European law (deposits in the UK are guaranteed up to £85,000 per person). The Deposit Guarantee Fund is financed by the banks themselves. Depending on the cost of bailing out rotten financial institutions like CAM it could mean there is not enough money leftover in the fund to protect savers’ deposits in the event of a bank failure the Government can’t stop. It certainly means the fund will have less money to do the job it was meant for. CAM is unlikely to be the last savings bank the Government has to bail out. Behind this move lies the Government’s desire to keep the cost of Spain’s bank restructuring off the books and keep the public deficit down.
The International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for Spanish growth next year and said unemployment will remain close to 20 percent as the spread of the sovereign- debt crisis undermines the recovery. Spain’s economy will grow 1.1 percent in 2012 instead of the 1.6 percent forecast in July, the Washington-based lender said in a report today. Unemployment will average 20.7 percent this year and 19.7 percent in 2012, it said.
Huge falls in some stock markets have hit Italy and Spain badly. Pedro
Schwartz, professor of economics at San Pablo University in Madrid,
explains to BBC Radio Four that "there doesn't seem to be a plan" and why Spanish people
are "all very worried" about the country's economic prospects. Click Here for broadcast.
Spanish and Italian government borrowing costs have hit eurozone-era highs as investors continue to worry over the state of their respective economies. Spanish 10-year government bond yields reached an intra-day high of 6.35% earlier today, according to figures from Tradeweb, with Italian 10-year bond yields reaching their own record level of 6.18%.
A tough sell at the best of times, Bankia created from the largest merger of Spains troubled savings banks, needs to raise 4bn Euros at a period of european crisis. The flotation will be seen as a test for the financial markets confidence in the Spanish economy as a whole Read More ....
The study describes prospects for improvements in investments in tandem with a recovery in levels of economic confidence across Europe. According to the survey, in 2011 5% more companies will be looking to invest in Europe, while those not planning to do so will fall by 6%.
Spain is in fifth place in the Top 15 most investor friendly countries in Europe, the recipient of 169 foreign investment projects in 2010, 17% of which were in the services sector and 14% in the new technologies sector. Foreign investment projects created jobs in Spain in 2010. Specifically 50% more than those created the previous year. Despite the fact that the number of projects went down by 2% last year in the country, they were of a magnitude that created jobs. Full Report Here
The spread between the yield on the Spanish benchmark 10-year government bond and the German equivalent widened to levels last seen in January of around 242 basis points, while the Ibex 35 fell 1.45% to 10,226.60, with banks suffering badly. Fitch on Friday downgraded Greece's long-term sovereign rating to B+ from BB+ to reflect the challenges facing Greece to "secure solvency." The ratings agency expects Greece's bailout package to be increased, but added if this involves compulsory "burden sharing" by private bondholders it would "adversely impact financial stability across the euro area."